Self Driving Cars Will Have To be Programed to Allow People To Die
This Is Part 2 From Whats Holding Self Driving Cars Back
I will admit that this heading sounds like I am really over blowing the thought on this post. But, I really don’t think I am. You may have never heard this from anywhere and you’re probably never even thought about it. Even if you don’t believe me just read a bit further and you will most likely begin to think differently here.
Accepting accidents
If you read the part one “Whats Holding Self Driving Cars Back” we mainly focused on the fact that there are going to be many accidents. I know that many people are going to argue that self driving cars are meant to prevent accidents. But, with just the shear volume of traffic and other drivers on the road. It is nearly impossible to expect zero accidents. Once we accept that accidents will happen, let’s go beyond the idea of an accident and look at the process of the accident.
Heres the Link to Part one If you haven’t read it
Whats Holding Self Driving Cars Back?
A possible Massive Oversimplification.
I know that there are going to be computer programers that are going to think I skipped overlay to many millions of lines of code they have written. But, Here I go anyway. As a self driving car is driving down the street. The car is processing millions lines of code. The cars computer has to take in everything as a persons brain would. The car must look ahead and calculate every possible scenario it possibly can. This can be from constantly calculating stopping distance to just trying to predict whats going to happen next. Just as a new driver must learn to drive humans understand the people do stupid things. And, this can be incredibly difficult to code. The car must think that others around it may do completely ridiculous and abrupt actions that’s nearly impossible to plan for.
Amazing Florida Drivers
I live in Florida, so I see so many absurd driving situations its amazing traffic still flows sometimes. (Many times) I’ve seen people merge onto the interstates at speeds way below 35 MPH (Speed limit is 70 MPH and just about every one speeds). Many people here probably believe the turn signal is simply an extra unknown light the auto manufactures just decided to throw in. These people will simply cut across four lanes of traffic for what appears to be for no over reason but to be in a lane they like more.
Let’s Understand A Cars Brain
Let’s try and look into the brain of a car try to see what it sees. Everything to do with computers work on probabilities. Simply put it constantly is taking the best guess, just a human would. If the self driving car is passing on a green through an intersection is has to continually monitor all directions. If the self driving car detects a car approaching the intersection from the right. The self driving car must calculate the speed at which the car is approaching and if it will be able to stop before cross in front causing an accident. Just as a human driver has to, the self driving car has to calculate the possibility of the other car running its red light.
Now To Tackle That Heading
Again I know that this heading is a bit much but as we all know accidents are accidents and we really shouldn’t have planned to have one. Here we are going to go over two plausible situations that can and probably have happened at one point in time. This isn’t meant to be grim, but until regulations are created to guide these types of rules. The self driving car is for the future.
Scenario #1
A Computer Will Decide For You
Set Up
It’s night time and dark out. Roads are in perfect condition and wether is great.
A self driving car is driving at a steady 60 MPH down a two lane highway, one lane in either direction.
Scenario
I use to travel all over the United States and this has happened to me while driving more than once. I am driving down a dark road when suddenly just going over a small hill or turn there is a massive tire or branch in the road. Here it doesn’t matter how many sensors you have on a car. A self driving car can only see so far ahead.
The Choices
Here the choices are limited but in a fraction of a second the car will have to make an amazing amount of calculations. First the car will have to determine if it can identify what the obstruction is and know if it’s moving. After the car has calculated that the obstruction isn’t moving. The self driveling car will then have to calculate the level of impact the object will have on the car. The car then will then have to calculate the chances of successfully maneuvering around the object vs hitting the object. Here your car will have to make a decision of possibly losing control or hitting a tire in the rode.
This sounds like a simple answer but what if that object is a broken truck in the middle of the road? The decision your car will make will then be worth your life. Here the car will have to understand that there is no safe way to maneuver. It will have to calculate the safest path possible. Whether that be running off the road into a field. Just attempting to slow as much as possible before impact.
Scenario 1 conclusion
Here it may have seemed that the decisions are a no brainer just minimize damages as least as possible. But Let’s take this much further and see when a car truly has to make a decision on who live.
Scenario #2
Your Car Will Choose Who Lives
Set Up
It’s a perfect day out and visibility is perfect. Roads are in perfect condition and wether is great.
A self driving car is driving at a steady 65 MPH down a dived two lane road, one lane in either direction with a median in-between.
scenario
You’re in your self driving car traveling 65 MPH. While coming up to a section of road that has a light post on your left and right a person not seeing you approach suddenly walks into your path. In a fraction of a second, faster than your ability to react. You’re car determines that there are not possible maneuvers. The choices are: hit either pole head on or continue straight and just attempt to reduce as much speed. Here your car will have made a decision on who’s life to save.
If You Choose Pedestrian’s Life
Let’s change this just slightly and say theres a barrier on your right and oncoming traffic on your left. Your car again will have to make a choice to hit the pedestrian or the other innocent driver in oncoming traffic.
Scenario #2 Conclusion
There may be people that argue that this is too specific of in instance but when you compare it to the infinite possible scenarios just about anything is possible. This could have easily been a car driving a down a city street when chidden impossible to see dart out between cars.
The statistics and sources
I understand when talking about specific scinerions the situation may fell like they be to unlikely. But here are some numbers.
According the National Highway Safety Administration
These are the figures only for the year of 2018
| Number of Deaths | Traffic Related |
|---|---|
| 35,560 | Total Traffic Related |
| 9,378 | Speeding Related |
| 4,985 | Motorcycle |
| 6,283 | pedestrian |
| 857 | bicyclist |
| 885 | Large Truck Occupants |
According to to the the CDC in 2017, there were an estimated 137,000 personal treated in emergency departments for non fatal crash related injuries.
Conclusion
Self Driving Cars will remain for the future until regulations are built around the understanding that accidents will happen. If the Self Driving Car has the capability to lower the number of accidents and traffic related fatalities. We would look at every life saved is another family spared the loss of a loved one.